Couple Quick Thoughts

I'm out at Ad: Tech in SF for the next couple of days. In the mean time, I thought that I would pass along a couple links that I hope you will enjoy:

The Sports Guy had some interesting (read: funny) thoughts about the NBA Playoffs.

MySpace.com Co-Founder Tom Anderson allegedly has his own 'private' account.

Not surprisingly, Angelina Jolie is the world's most beautiful person - according to People.

I should have Republish Thursday available for you tomorrow.

Why You Should Pay People

Yahoo today published a semi-humorous story about an ex-eBay Affiliate who was sent to jail today for five months for sending threatening email messages to Meg Whitman and Pierre Omidyar.

The man claimed he was owed $7200 of back-pay through eBay's Affiliate Program. The reason I found this story particularly amusing is because I work in the world of online marketing and am very familiar with the ins and outs of affiliate marketing.

People who run affiliate websites are a fickle bunch - in many ways similar to sellers on online Auctions sites. Don't get me wrong, for the most part most Affiliates are normal business people. But there are others (typically those Affiliates that run smaller websites) who are, frankly speaking, a pain in the ass to work with.

Under no circumstances are merchants allowed to mess around with how they pay Affiliates. If an Affiliate feels that they were short-changed in any way, they will raise hell until something is done about it. If you don't believe me, be sure to check out Abestweb.

Executive Producer: Starbucks, Inc

In an an interesting move, Starbucks (sbux) is now getting into the business of promoting movies. Akeelah and the Bee is a new movie that is opening this Friday. SBUX is promoting the movie by including it on the 4 million sleeves that it hands out to its patrons daily.

SBUX is not new to the entertainment business. For years it has tried selling CD's in it's stores. I wouldn't call this a successful venture in any way. CD prices in SBUX stores range from $9.99-$19.99. And the artists that they offer are more familiar to SBUX's older customers SBUX also has wireless Web access in many of its stores, where consumers can log onto Itunes and purchase tracks starting at $.99.

Is the movie business a good idea? Frankly speaking, I'm not so sure. The SBUX brand is one of the most recognizable brands in the world. To start branching out and getting involved in businesses (i.e. marketing/advertising) that have nothing to do with your core competencies is always risky. If the movie does horribly at the box office, there's no doubt that the sbux brand will be affected. However, if it succeeds, it will be another reason why sbux will continue to be a solid investment.

Republish Thursday (okay, it's Friday): Why Oil is so High

This week's theme, obviously, has been the sky-rocketing price of Oil. One of my favorite writer's over at MSNBC.com has this to say about why Oil is so high.

April 21, 2006 - When your heart starts racing faster than the digital numbers on the gas pump, you know there’s a problem with the price. And if you haven’t had that shock already, you will soon. Last week, the U.S. Energy Department estimated regular gasoline would cost an average of $2.62 a gallon this summer, up 10.5 percent from last year. Already that sounds optimistic. By the beginning of this week, the average price of regular was $2.79. On Wednesday, the DOE suggested prices might actually get up to around $3 this summer, but wouldn’t remain “that high, on average, over a whole month.” Meanwhile, the price of crude oil—which determines the base price of gasoline—has jumped to record highs, and looks set to climb some more.

Yep, there is a problem. And while oil industry analysts and the Bush administration will make the reasons sound very complicated, throwing in every market variable from refinery capacities to inventories to Nigerian guerrillas, I’ll sum it up for you in one word: “Iran.”

Although Tehran has yet to use “the oil weapon” by cutting supplies—far from it—saber-rattling President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is learning fast that he can shake up the nervous global energy market with just a calculated remark here or there. In economic language so measured it sounded vaguely Greenspanian, the Iranian president told Tehran Radio this week that “the global oil price has not reached its real value yet.” At that, the cost of a barrel went splashing over the unprecedented $72 mark. “Every time there's an issue with Iran, the oil market freaks out," as one New York analyst told the Associated Press.

Ahmadinejad has a reputation as a wild-eyed provocateur. (How often has he said, in various ways, he’d like to see Israel wiped off the map?) And nothing drives up prices like rumors of war. But it’s the United States and Israel cranking up the volume at the moment. After a Palestinian blew himself up in front of a Tel Aviv falafel stand this week, killing nine people and wounding dozens, Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Dan Gillerman told the press there’s a new “axis of terror” in the Middle East. “A dark cloud is looming over our region, and it is metastasizing as a result of the statements and actions by leaders of Iran, Syria and the newly elected [Hamas] government of the Palestinian Authority,” said Gillerman, that amount to “clear declarations of war.”

President George W. Bush, meanwhile, remains coy about what military options he may or may not use, eventually, to try to eliminate Iran’s rapidly progressing nuclear research, which Iran says is purely for peaceful purposes—even as it perfects possible bomb-related technologies. And while the clock ticks, every dollar increase in the price of oil brings the Iranian government an extra dividend of roughly $2 million a day, plus the tens of billions reaped in rising prices since 2003.

None of these apparent ironies should be surprising. Iran, the second largest petroleum producer in the Persian Gulf, has sometimes been a frustrating ally and sometimes an avowed enemy of the United States. But it has always been the epicenter of major oil shocks.

Consider the performance of the last Shah. A 1953 coup engineered by Britain and the United States restored him to power after his rather more democratic opponents, who’d ousted him, threatened Western oil interests. “I owe my throne to God, my people, my army—and to you!” the Shah told Kermit “Kim” Roosevelt, the CIA’s man in Tehran at the time. Yet 20 years later the same Shah took advantage of the 1973 Arab oil embargo to ram through prices more than 10 times higher than they’d been in 1970. “Iran will be one of the serious countries of the world,” the Shah insisted, evoking the millennia-old glories of Persia’s past.

As Daniel Yergin writes in his classic 1990 study “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power,” after that surge in prices the Shah was soon talking with regal airs about petroleum as a “noble product.” He haughtily advised Western nations that “they will have to realize that the era of their terrific progress and even more terrific income and wealth based on cheap oil is finished.” He talked of the United States, and all of the West, with undisguised disdain.

“Eventually all those children of well-to-do families who have plenty to eat at every meal, who have their cars, and who act almost as terrorists and throw bombs here and there, they will have to rethink all these aspects of the advanced industrial world. And they will have to work harder,” said the Shah. “Your young boys and young girls who receive so much money from their fathers will also have to think that they must earn their living somehow.” Ahmadinejad could lift those lines verbatim to rouse Iranian crowds today, and practically does.
In 1979, when the Shah fell to the Islamic revolution of Ayatollah Khomeini, new oil shocks rocked the world economy. Suddenly there were places in the United States where gasoline was not to be had at any price. (I worked at a service station outside Washington, D.C., during the July 4 holidays that year, reporting a story for The Washington Post. Part of my job was to carry the “Last Car” sign down the long line of motorists, marking the end of hope for those who had waited the better part of a day to fill their tanks. I was offered bribes. I was threatened. But there was nothing to be done.) It seemed as if a whole way of life had ended. By 1980, the price of oil reached highs that, adjusted for inflation, would top $90 a barrel today. That same threshold is approaching now.

Before we get that far, it’s worth considering that Iran’s assertiveness in regional and world affairs seems, quite literally, to follow the market. When the Shah depended on the CIA in 1953 (and the barrel of oil was priced in pennies) he was a more-or-less craven ally. Two decades later, flush with petro-dollars, he was a raving imperialist, who later started Iran’s nuclear program. So, too, with the mullahs. When oil prices were astronomical in the early 1980s, ayatollahs were looking to spread their revolution far and wide. When the price had sunk to about $10 a barrel in the late 1990s, reformists were ascendant in Tehran, and wanted to accommodate the West almost any way they could.

More recently, on the nuclear front, when the mullahs agreed to freeze their enrichment research in 2003, the average price of oil was about $30 a barrel. They again started up nuclear fuel enrichment activities—the same process that can be used to make fissionable material for atomic weapons—last year when the price of oil had reached $50. By the time they announced earlier this month that they’d succeeded with enrichment, oil prices were on their way to $70. Tensions drive up the cost of oil, international pressure inspires Iranian nationalism and increased revenues underwrite the mullahs’ ability to resist.

I’m not sure there’s a quick way out of this spiral. But I do know this: if global oil consumption goes down—and the United States accounts for 25 percent of that—then so will the price of oil. And history suggests that if oil prices fall, so will the ambition and intransigence of any Iranian regime. So if you want to force the mullahs to make a deal, talk peace, not war. And think about trading in that SUV before you end up in the line on the wrong side of the “last car” sign.

This Apple Didn't Fall from the Tree..It Rose..

Apple Computer announced earnings today; among the highlights:

-Second Quarter Profits rose a mind-blowing 41%.
-Revenue for the quarter was $4.36 Billion (up 34% from a year ago, though still below the projected $4.54 Billion).

Most impressive (to me anyways) was the fact that iPod Sales totaled $1.7 Billion, while sales for the Mac totaled $1.57 Billion. More than 8.5 Million units of th iPod were shipped during the quarter, which was also up 61% YoY.

It just goes to show that high oil prices still won't deter people from buying the finer things in life. Now, what was the name of that 50 Cent song that I just heard...

Senator Schumer Calls for Probe

In an update to yesterday's post, Senator Charles Schumer called today for a probe into whether or not big oil companies were in collusion and withholding supplies in an effort to drive up prices.

The average price of gasoline has jumped up to $2.79 (although it was $2.29 here while I was driving home from work this evening).

Frankly speaking, I highly doubt that an investigation like this will go anywhere - especially when we have two ex-oil executives running the country. In the mean time, I'm still looking for a great deal on a Prius.

It Don't Stop...'Cause It Can't Stop

Oil prices settled above $70 per barrel today for the first time since Killer Katrina stormed her way on shore in early September.

Gas prices where I live are relatively low compared with prices in the rest of the donations. I put Premium Unleaded fuel in my SUV this morning and spend $2.53/gallon. These prices aren't that bad, however, the sad thing is, these are prices before the summer driving season starts on Memorial Day weekend - a weekend in which traditionally Gas Stations typically raise their prices $.10-$.15 regardless of what gas prices are currently at.

Normally I'd be fine with this, but if oil continues to be be in $65-$75 per barrel range, it's quite possible that even I could be paying $3 a gallon for gas this summer (goodbye 5x's a week sbux).

The question is, how do we resolve the situation? When we first went into Iraq, I was excited because I thought it meant that we were going to paying $.25 for gas in a matter of weeks. However, we all know how that one turned out.

Now with Iran pissing and moaning about having WMD's, and further instability in the MidEast, the oil situation is anything but stable. The Bush Administration has proposed 'weening' us off Oil, however, how serious can he be about this? He and his family have a vested financial interest in seeing the United States buy oil at the rate that it does.

Another thing, I was watching one of those pathetic morning news show on the always credible Fox News Channel, and actually heard one of the commentators state that "American's are discovering the Hybrid vehicles aren't as cracked up as they first thought they were." Uhm, excuse me? Is that why Toyota Prius' can't stay in stock at my local Toyota dealer? Is that why there's a significant premium on hybrid cars?

Frankly Speaking, we as people DO need to stop relying on foreign oil, but it's not going to be a quick fix. It's going to take time, and it's not going to be pretty. But I think eventually it can be done. Are there alternative energy solutions that can be developed? Absolutely (that is, if all our scientists don't move to another country, I digress). Instead of spending billions on a space program right now (that isn't feasible) maybe we should focus first being able to travel down the street to the local sbux without having to rely on a substance produced mainly by the enemies of the United States.

I will now go back to my venti carmal frap.

Syndication Thursday: Valleywag

A fairly 'new' blog from the wonderful world of Gawker: I give you www.valleywag.com - a social commentary on the life and times of Silicon Valley. I will also be linking to it on the right-hand of my blog. Hope you enjoy:

The New York Times today touts Zunafish, the revolutionary sharing site that lets users swap books, CDs, and other media. It's like Mediachest or Delicious Monster or Peerflix or GameTZ or Lala -- but with fewer options.
So the online sharing business is booming. (It's not piracy, it's sharing! It's not socialism, it's Web 2.0!) This is all well and good, but there must be something grander out there...say, a place where everyone would put their media, and it could be shared from this centralized source.
Users could pay a fee when they lived in a city with one of these centers, and then access them for free. Accounts could run on, um, some sort of card system. Yeah. This'll be brilliant! We'll give it a bubbly logo and call it Shareby.

Red Sox are in First Place!!

Just in case you've been living in a cave for the last week and a half, baseball is back and the Red Sox are off to a fast start!

The Sawx are 6 - 1, in first place and three games up on the evil Yankees. Of course, there is still 150+ games to go, but you can never start knocking on the Yanks early enough. Pitching (which has long been the death knell) has been as strong as ever, with Curt Schilling and new -comer Josh Beckett starting out a blazing 2-0 against opposing teams.

So far, so good, but as always with the Sawx, stay tuned, you never know what will happen.

Is MySpace Really Your Space?

MySpace announced today that it will begin to run ads warning users to be wary of sexual predators on the Internet.

The announcement comes after an onslaught of news reports of predators prowling the popular website to pick up on the teens who make up the website. Many of the recent reports have featured the Website as unhelpful when it comes to protecting kids from these nefarious people.

This raises the question, does MySpace have the responsibility to 'police' its own website? The answer is not as easy as it seems. Obviously, the demographic target of MySpace users is male and females between the ages of 18-34. However, the website has become extemely popular with teenagers 16-18, and has prominant usage with kids younger than 16.

According to a report on Dateline last night, MySpace has 30 people who actively 'patrol' the website, looking for people who are too young to use the site, and occassionally running into shady characters.

However, like all websites, MySpace has grown to a point where its almost impossible to control. With 60 million users, it's nearly impossible for employees of the website to look at ALL of the profiles to make sure that they are compliant with their rules.

With this in mind, who then, should be responsible for monitoring the Web activity of 25 million plus teenagers? Here's a thought - what about their parents? Call me crazy, but if parents actually took an interest in what their kids were doing on the Web, or watching on television, we wouldn't need all these 'automated controls' to be put in place by public 'censors'.

Parents, instead of demanding that companies stand up and clean up the content that they make available to the public, why don't you do YOUR job and take an active part in your childs life. Talk to them about what they see on television and read on the Web.

Sure, I think Sexual Predators are a huge problem on the Web, however, if the family computer was placed in a public place in the home, a child would be far less likely to converse with someone they didn't know, without their parent finding out.

Republish: How I Met Tiger Woods

Unbelievable story from the Grouch Golf Blog:

An amazing thing happened to me several months ago, but I was hesitant to write about it due to the sensitive nature of the topic. However, after realizing the low-profile nature of this site, I now feel comfortable telling my story...
As a member of Shady Canyon Country Club in Irvine, CA, I try to work out in their 1st-class gym at least once a week. On one such morning, I was working out when none other than Tiger walked in!
Since it was very early in the morning and it was during the holidays, there was only Tiger and myself in the free weight section. He initiated a conversation with me when he sat down at a weight bench and said, "Morning." I reciprocated and then he asked me, "Hey Bud (that's not my name, but he could call me Alice if he wanted), you mind spotting for me here?"
Although my nerves disabled most of my motor functions, I managed to say, "Sure thing T." In knee-jerk reaction, I cringed at myself for being such a jackass to call him "T". What right did I have to call him anything else but "your royal golf highness"? I thought to myself, just act normal you imbecile. Once I composed myself, I dropped my 10 pound barbells and came to his aid.
We actually spent quite a bit of time working out together and talking. It turns out that we actually have a lot in common. The key icebreaker was the revelation that we attended rival colleges. He attended Stanford while I attended Cal. As we engaged in some playful trash talking, I realized that Tiger is a really cool and down-to-earth guy. He has a dry, sarcastic sense of humor that had me in stitches.
After he was done working out he asked me, "Hey Bud, I have a tee time here at 10:30am, you wanna join me?" I felt like I had won the lottery. I looked around for cameras to check whether I was about to be Punk'd by Ashton Kutcher. When Mr. MILF didn't show up, I knew that it was legit. Unfortunately, I had to be at work by 9:30am to deliver a big presentation. There was no question what I had to do. I had to make that tee time.
After calling in sick and tossing my career down the drain, I met up with Tiger at the cart loading bay. Noticing my bag full of Nike Blades glistening in the sun he quipped, "Nice irons."
"Well, I saw Michelle Wie playing with a set and I was sold."
He flashed that world-famous Cheshire Cat smile and acknowledged, "That was a good one." He paused and then continued, "So you wanna make it interesting?"
"Are you kidding me? You better give me at least 30 strokes a side!"
He laughed and asked about my handicap. I gave him a well-sandbagged figure and he said, "OK, how about I give you 10 strokes a side Bud?" Only 10 strokes! I usually shoot in the mid-90s on this course from the tips whereas Tiger would break 70 easily. Therefore, I needed at least 14 stokes a side. I couldn't believe it, but Tiger was trying to screw me!
After some negotiating, I managed to extract 16 strokes a side. Satisfied, I said, "Well, what are we playing for?"
"You name it. I think I can cover it." I laughed as I pondered his offer. Considering that I was getting 32 strokes, I knew that I had a good shot at beating Tiger if I just played smart.
"If I win, how about I get to hang out with you for the next couple of days as your 'personal assistant'?"
He chuckled and remarked, "Don't you have a job to get back to?"
"Actually, I probably don't."
After some thought he said, "Well, I already have a couple of assistants, but I could always use another. What do I get if I win?" I thought about it for a while before he said, "Oh, don't worry about it, let's just play!"
I have always considered Tiger to be the primary member of my "dream foursome." So to actually play with Tiger is truly a dream come true. And the experience didn't disappoint. He is the most amazing golfer, period. To describe every incredible feat that I witnessed during our round would fill a book. Let me just say that I was in awe all day.
On the final hole I needed a double-bogey to win by a stroke. I was nervous beyond belief, and the constant ribbing by the best golfer of all-time didn't help. But I managed to hack it around good enough for a bogey and a win! Ecstatic over my victory, I gladly offered to void our little wager. He would have none of it. He insisted, "A bet's a bet Bud. You won fair and square. Now let's go get some grub."
We cleaned up and then headed to the clubhouse for lunch. The hostess led us to a table that was occupied by two stunning blondes. Not just blondes, but identical blondes! I was shocked. Tiger could only laugh at my bewilderment and then introduced me to his wife, Elin and her twin sister, Josie. Could this be for real?
It turns out that they are both sweet and almost too friendly. Surprisingly, I really hit it off with Josie. Unlike most hotties, she laughed at all my jokes and took a genuine interest in my stories.
After lunch, Tiger had to take care of some business at the GM PR office in Thousand Oaks. However, he called for a car to take us up to Beverly Hills for an extravagant shopping spree. He simply instructed us to call the number on the back of his Amex Black card when we were about 15 mins. away from our destination. Upon our arrival, two personal shoppers greeted us and escorted us to Rodeo Drive. I felt like a rock star shopping at the hippest boutiques accompanied by twin blonde bombshells!
After our shop-a-thon, we met up with Tiger at LAX. Straight out of a Puff Daddy video, our car pulled right up to a Gulfstream 550 private jet! Only then did I learn that we were to fly us back to his Isleworth home. Things were moving so fast that I didn't begin to question what was going on. It was only on the plane that I started to think about my life back home. What would I do about my job, my car, my clothes, etc? I explained my concerns to Tiger and he said, "Don't worry about that stuff, Bud. Just hang out with us and everything will take care of itself. You can stay at my guesthouses as long as you want." I couldn't believe my ears as the stewardess was filling my glass with bubbly.
The rest is history. In a million years, I never would have imagined that my life could change so dramatically in such a short time from a chance encounter. I now have a new job as Tiger's personal financial manager. In short, I monitor Tiger's expenses on the road. As a result, I've become a full-fledged member of his entourage and I get to travel with him all over the world. The only bad part of my job is that I've also been designated the "dog-sitter". Tiger likes to take that damn border collie of his wherever he goes and I'm the one who has to take care of it. There's nothing more in the world that I'm allergic to than pet dander and I think that Tiger assigned me this responsibility on purpose to drive me nuts. But hey, we all have to make some sacrifices, right?
It's been quite a whirlwind adventure and I am rapidly becoming close friends with the World's #1. In fact, there's a realistic chance that I may become his future brother in-law. Yes, things are going fabulously with Josie and me. We're even discussing moving in together into one of Tiger's newly planned guest homes! My life has never been better. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to pack my bags for my first trip to Augusta!
P.S. With all my travel and other obligations, I'll likely be completely offline for at least a week. So please don't be upset if I can't respond to your emails in a timely manner.

Frankly speaking if this is true, it's INCREDIBLE!

Can You Cross the Border

There has been lots of debate recently regarding the issue of immigration - specifically, should we deport illegal aliens (people without proper documentation) and how easy should it be in order to for foreigners to enter the country.

Frankly speaking (see, I told you that I'd throw one in there) I haven't researched the issue enough to take a solid position, one way or the other. I do know that all tis talk of immigration has caused enough commotion amongst Latinos in the United States to cause large protests all over the United States.

What purpose would deporting illegal aliens serve? Well, obviously, it would relieve the number of people in this country who clamour for social support from the state. It has been well documented that undocumented foreign workers earn well below both state and national adverages. Because of this, they are forced to rely on the state in order to subsidize their lack of salary, and this in turn causes those funds to go to undocumented workers, instead of those who may be rightfully deserving of them.

However, lots of these people come here from obviously poorer countries, where they often earn less in a day than what they can make in an hour here. They, in turn, send the excess to family that they left behind in their home country. That money is then deployed to that nation's economy, which, eventually trickles down to paying off that country's debt owed to the United States, World Bank, or IMF.

The above are just an example of the plusses and minusses involved on both sides of the issue. The issue is very big in the United States, and won't go away for a long time.